3rd Quarter 2011 Market Update

Professional overview of 2011 3rd Quarter River Chase market update:

•  In the 3rd quarter, homes that sold were on the market an average of 166 days.
• $318,875 was the average sales price of homes that sold in the 3rd quarter. 
• Almost half of the homes sold in the last year sold in the 3rd quarter of 2011.

2nd Quarter 2011 Market Update

How is the real estate market doing in River Chase subdivision?  A professional overview:

• More homes have sold in the second quarter of 2011 than in the first quarter.
• Overall, there has been a decrease in list to sale price percentage.
• The number of days on market has decreased in the second quarter, over the yearly and six month average. 

What does this mean???  Let's address the number of homes sold in the second quarter first.  Only 2 homes sold in River Chase for the first quarter of 2011, while 4 homes sold in the second quarter.  Though River Chase is experiencing a slow year in real estate, activity has doubled for the first half of the summer selling season.  It will be interesting to see how the summer finishes up in the 3rd Quarter Market Update.

Why has there been a decrease in the list to sales price percentage?  This is not necessarily a bad thing.  This does not necessarily mean that people are getting less than market value for their homes.  There are two possible reasons for this decrease:  1)  As much as a real estate agent can suggest a list price for a home, based on market statistics, the home owner has the control to make the final decision on a price for the house.  Sometimes, the price that the home owner wants, does not fit the demand on the market. The house sold for the price that it should have been listed for, based on comparable data in the market.  2)  There are more sellers than buyers interested in the River Chase subdivision.  Buyers have a lot to choose from, and are able to negotiate the best prices for homes with sellers that have flexibility in their equity.

If the real estate market is slow in River Chase...when why are homes selling faster?  Summer time is traditionally the busiest season for real estate.  When school is dismissed for summer, buyers are eager to begin looking for homes and move before the start of the next school year.

What if you are interested in selling your home in River Chase?  It is a good time to sell if you have the flexibility in the equity of your home, or budget, and are able to price the home to sell.  We are in a buyers market, and if you are looking to downsize, or move up to another house, then a good deal can be found on your next purchase.  Interest rates are at a historic low, with indications of increasing soon, and then you would become a player in a buyers market.  For more information how you can save money by selling now, contact me at 830-609-8877 or ValerieTolbirt@yahoo.com.

1st Quarter 2011 Market Update

How is the real estate market doing in River Chase subdivision?  A professional overview:

• The number of homes available in River Chase has increased 65% since December 2010.
• Homes sales in the 1st Quarter of 2011 did not improve over the 4th Quarter of 2010. 
• Despite slow sales, properties are holding their value at 96% and above for the average list to sales price.

Looking at the total number of homes sold in the past 6 and 3 months, there is no doubt that market "movement" in River Chase has been slow.  Traditionally, the real estate market slows down in the Fall and Winter, and then picks up again in the Spring.

Spring time is when many people begin to place their homes on the market. 16 of the 38 properties that are available in River Chase were added to the market within the last 30 days.  With so many new additions, and only 2 properties sold in the last three months, we see a "scary" surge in the "Months of Supply on Market." 

What does "Months of Supply" mean?  It is the term and formula used to measure how the supply (available homes for sale) compares to the recent demand (recently sold homes).   

The 1st Quarter 2011 market data statistically reflects that if you were to place your home on the market today, it would take 4.75 years to sell the property. 

YIKES!!!

FORTUNATELY, statistics change each month.  Chances are...given that your property is in top-notch showing condition and priced reasonable to the market...it will not take 4.75 years to sell.  With the right price, marketing, condition, and a touch of luck, it should sell by the end of the Summer.  The number of available homes is surging up for the Spring and Summer buying season and being comparable to a slow Winter season.  This number WILL balance out as properties are purchased over next 6 months. 


For a free property search, market analysis request, and more information on my business and listings, please visit http://www.valerietolbirthomes.com/.

River Chase 4th Quarter Trends REVIEW

After calculating the 4th Quarter Real Estate Market Data for River Chase, I was very alarmed by the low number of properties that sold in the 4th Quarter of 2010.  Only 2 properties sold between October 1st and December 31st, 2010.  WOW!  Is this a fluke? A slump? A norm for River Chase?  Here is a look at 4th Quarters from previous years:

2010:  2 SOLD
2009:  7 SOLD
2008:  7 SOLD
2007:  5 SOLD
2006:  10 SOLD

Note:  This information only includes properties with homes, not vacant lots. 

Two sold properties is NOT a "norm" for River Chase.  Could this be a "fluke" or a "slump?"  I think it could be either one.  In general, the 2010 real estate market, in this area, "bottomed out" (or so we hope).  Sale price and volume of homes were flat compared to 2009. 

I took a general look at sold properties, in New Braunfels for the years 2006-2010.  River Chase's sales data for the 4th Quarter follows the sales pattern for the New Braunfels area.  This is good news!  River Chase is not targeted as a slumping subdivision, it follows the real estate trend in New Braunfels!  This means, it will probably follow the upwards trend in coming years! 

2010:  699 SOLD
2009:  806 SOLD
2008:  771 SOLD
2007:  903 SOLD
2006:  900 SOLD

Note:  This information reflects all single family property sales, in all price ranges, with a New Braunfels address.  This does not include lots, commercial properties, duplexes, manufactured homes, etc.

4th Quarter Market Update

How is the real estate market doing in River Chase Subdivision? A professional overview:

After my first Market Update post in October, I realized that not everyone will want to read my detailed analysis of the market! Here is a brief overview!

• Despite slow 4th quarter sales in 2010, properties are holding their value in Riverchase.


• The average "days on market" have increased slightly over the 3rd Quarter Report.


• The summertime, before school starts, holds the best chance of selling your home quickly.

The data for this quarter reflects actual "sold" properties between December 31, 2009 and December 31, 2010. The 12 month data reflects the YTD timeframe, the 6 month data reflects July 1st to December 31st 2010, and the three month data includes October 1st to December 31st 2010.

As comparisions are made between Q3 and Q4 2010 data, you will notice a significant difference in the "months of supply on the market" numbers. This is because the time frame data is going to overlap and run into the numbers for the next quarter, either improving them or making them worse. IE: River Chase Subdivision only had two residential sales in the last three months of 2010. This poor sales data is going to effect the 6 month data for the Q1 2011 report.

So what do the numbers in Quarter 4 2010 report mean? Was it a bad year for real estate in Riverchase? Are sales on the decline? Are property values falling? The answers are not overall, maybe, and no.

Was it a bad year for real estate in River Chase? Not overall. The lack of sales in the 4th quarter of 2010 drove the total sales for the YTD down 20% compared to the YTD sales of the 3rd Quarter of 2010. Sales were great in the first nine months of the year, and especially great between the beginning of July and the end of September.

Traditionally, the 4th Quarter of the year is the slowest season for real estate (school is back in swing, holidays, holidays, and holidays) - we will explore the 4th Quarter Curse in an upcoming post.

Are sales on the decline? Maybe. Until we have data for 2011, there is not a comparison for the immediate future. However, a look at past trends can give us a clue.....(more to come in a future post).

Are property values falling? NO. When we look at average list to sales price, the percentage in the 4th Quarter Report are consistant with, and slightly higher than, the percentages of the 3rd Quarter Report. An average 96% list to sales price is an awesome percentage! This means that there are few people "giving" their homes away, and there are few foreclosures and short-sales in the neighborhood that are driving this percentage down. Even though there were only 2 sales in the 4th Quarter, the list to sales price percentage was the best yet!

For a free property search, market analysis request for your property, and more information on my business and listings, please visit http://www.valerietolbirt.com/

3rd Quarter Market Update: 2010

How is the market doing in River Chase Subdivision? A professional overview:

This data chart represents market data for River Chase subdivision from September 30, 2009 to September 30, 2010. Over the past 12 months, we have seen a slow moving buyers market with an average of 2.5 homes selling per month. As we move past the 3rd quarter of 2010, the average sold per month has increased to 4.33. Almost HALF of all River Chase homes sold in the last 12 months have taken place between July and September 2010.

The market in River Chase started shifting from a buyers market in late 2009, to a balanced market in Spring 2010, and then appearing to be a sellers market for Summer 2010. The "Months of Supply on the Market" is a fancy way of stating: at the current rate of sales, it would take "x" amount of months to extinguish all inventory and sell all of the available properties. Though, not all properties will sell - in this market, price, features, location, condition, size, and the financial needs of the seller will determine where a property will contribute to the "months of supply" scale; it may lay outside (+/-) the current parameters.

This is very good news for sellers in River Chase, it means that the market is gaining slight momentum.

Overall, the average price per home on the market has dropped slightly over the past year (approximately 6%), however, this could be due to different types, sizes, and price points of properties becoming available, or sellers adjusting their listing price to fit the needs of the market. With the "number of days" on market, and the "selling to list price" staying consistent over the past year, it is almost certain that sellers have recognized buyers' needs in the area and have adjusted accordingly.

What does this mean to home owners and potential buyers in River Chase?? Now is a good time to sell, if your property is priced within the market guidelines for the current market conditions and comparable competition!

For a free property search, market analysis request, and more information on my business and listings, please visit http://www.valerietolbirt.com/.